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moldmakingtechnology.com 41 CONTRIBUTORS Michael Taylor is senior director, International Affairs and Trade, for SPI: The Plastics Industry Trade Association. In this role, he serves as the primary staff expert on international trade policy, programs and activities. He has a broad array of experience in the international trade, governmental and academic arenas, and has a strong background in U.S. trade law and regulations, as well as in global compliance issues. significant percentage increase in exports to Germany in that year, because of its overall economic health. The key question related to opportunities in Europe is: Will the economic growth, demand and manufacturing production continue in key EU countries, and perhaps spread to other member states? To provide a partial answer to this question, five of the EU economies are highlighted here, based on their macroeconomic environments, potential for growth and export strength with regards to the plastics and mold industries. The Czech Republic In 2015, the Czech economy will expand 2.5 percent, as cycli- cal expansion in Germany is pulling demand for intermediate products made in the Czech Republic. Output of manufac- tured goods such as wood, refined petroleum, rubber and plas- tics, and fabricated products is particularly strong. Germany In 2015, overall economic growth will reach only 2 percent in Germany. This is respectable by European standards, but well short of past performance. On the positive side of the ledger, a higher minimum wage, rising immigration and a steady flow of women into the labor force are strengthening the possibility for growth beyond 2015. Manufacturing pro- duction has rebounded and is running better than 4 percent annually. Private consumption is fueled by rising income and wealth, along with a housing surge. The manufacturing boom is broadly based, with durable goods such as electronics and optics performing particularly well. Output of intermediate goods has risen 5 percent since the beginning of 2013. Spain As structural reforms imposed by the IMF take hold, Spanish growth is picking up speed. Increased productivity has enabled moderate pay raises, and exports are also on an upward trajec- tory. The country had three consecutive quarters of growth up to the first quarter of 2014. Amid returning business confi- dence and falling interest rates, the labor market has stabilized and demand for labor is increasing. Spain will remain near the lower end of the manufacturing growth rankings over the next 1.5 years, however. Its recovery is broad-based but subdued. Pockets of particular strength include electronics and selected types of specialized machinery. Austria The Austrian recovery is moving at a moderate but steady pace. GDP gained about a percentage point in total over the past three quarters, and the economy should grow about 1.5 percent this year and expand at a faster pace in 2015. The recovery has been export-led thus far. The industrial side of the economy is only just now getting off the ground, with production of chemicals, pharmaceuticals and motor vehicles trending upward. Expect total output to increase to just less than 3 percent this year and a little more than that in 2015. Poland Poland's expansion is gathering pace, although growth in consumer spending slowed somewhat last year. Poland is sig- nificantly exposed to the turmoil in Ukraine, and with trade and investment links to Russia and Ukraine so large, business sentiment could suffer should tensions escalate and sanctions be imposed. Manufacturing is seeing strong growth, however. At a predicted annual growth rate of about 6 percent this year and next, the country will rank near the top of the EU. On balance, there are solid reasons to be cautiously optimis- tic about sustained economic growth in Europe. If the TTIP negotiations are successful, this could spur and spread positive momentum across the EU. It is not a foregone conclusion this will happen though, nor is it a given that Europe will avoid any of the potential downside risks already discussed. The largest single threat to continued economic growth and stability in the EU and the U.S. is most likely political uncertainty. REFERENCES Offce of the U.S. Trade Representative Manufacturing Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) International Monetary Fund (IMF) U.S. International Trade Commission FOR MORE INFORMATION: SPI: The Plastics Industry Trade Association 202-974-5232 / mtaylor@plasticsindustry.org plasticsindustry.org Global Market Opportunities for Mold Manufacturers: Europe November 18, 2014 at 2 p.m. EST Educational Webinar Series on International Affairs and Trade Register at moldmakingtechnology.com/webinars