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Global Market Opportunities 38 MoldMaking Technology November 2014 cially within the Eurozone, where common rules on monetary policy and fiscal guidance must support policymaking. Domestic demand is anemic with consumers still keeping purse strings tight, even in countries with expanding income such as Poland, the UK and Sweden. Uncertainty over policy, including at the EU level, looms large over this situation. Over- all GDP rose 0.3 percent in the entire EU in the first quarter and 0.2 percent in the Eurozone—both lower than expectations. At the same time, manufacturing production rose in each of the past five months and is running just over 3 percent ahead of a year ago in the EU and just under 3 percent in the Eurozone. Only parts of Scandinavia's industrial sector remain in reces- sion. The core central European four (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic) plus Romania are growing annually at rates of around 8 percent or better. The Manufacturing Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) forecasts manufacturing production to advance this year by 2 percent in the Eurozone and 5.5 percent in the CEE3 (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), and by 2.6 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, in 2015. This year, GDP is slated to advance 1.1 percent in the Eurozone and 2.4 percent in the CEE3, and 1.4 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, in 2015. In looking forward to 2015, only a marginal improvement in Europe's manufacturing production is forecast. The CEE3 and Sweden will experience manufacturing growth rates of 4.5 per- cent or more, while Germany and Austria should expand at a rate of about 3 percent each. Downside risks include a possible disruption of gas deliveries resulting from political tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as an unanticipated panic around Europe's financial system. Growth decelerated in emerging and developing Europe in the second half of 2013 as the region contended with large capi- tal outflows. According to the IMF, emerging and developing European countries includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Kosovo, Lithuania, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Turkey. Despite positive spillovers from advanced Europe, here the recovery as a whole has weakened in 2014. Fragilities in the Euro area, some domestic policy tightening, rising finan- cial market volatility and increased geopolitical uncertainty stemming from developments in Ukraine have weighed heavily on the region, putting these risks at the forefront. Ease of Doing Business The recent economic downturn lasted longer and in some sense was more painful than its American equivalent. Along with the recession itself, some countries underwent a crunch on their sovereign debts, rocking the political foundations of the EU at the same time. Unemployment remains high and capital formation lags amid more fragmented financial markets. In the aftermath of this upheaval, some confidence in the com- petitiveness of the European marketplace may have eroded. In an attempt to analyze whether the ease of doing business in Europe has slipped over the past five years, Dr. Krzysztof BIedowski, a senior economist at MAPI, examined three broad- based rankings (see Chart 1, page 37) that assess the business climate in 29 European economies. As Dr. Bledowski says, "Each approach places emphasis on a differing set of angles that define the ease of doing business." Three Rankings The World Economic Forum's (WEF) Global Competitiveness Index filters institutions, policies and factors that determine a country's productivity level. This measure focuses on 12 pil- lars: institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomics, health and primary education, higher education, goods, labor and financial markets, technology, market size, business sophistication, and innovation. The sample spans 148 countries. The Index of Economic Freedom by the Heritage Foundation analyzes a country's commitment to rule of law, size of govern- Country 2013 In Actual Percent Change 2012 - 2013 Percent Change 2000 - 2013 Belgium 2,320,055,779 12.00% 99.77% Germany 1,288,138,822 2.40% 87.97% United Kingdom 1,199,873,397 1.90% 37.92% Netherlands 1,115,254,753 4.50% 48.04% France 534,546,575 -9.00% 21.05% Ireland 417,689,038 -3.70% 153.42% Italy 302,335,510 0.90% 48.21% Spain 149,512,382 3.00% 41.82% Polland 114,171,917 9.80% 320.24% Czech Republic 73,511,722 20.60% 569.21% Total 7,924,681,181 3.70% 70.05% TABLE 1